Sino-Indian Conflict and The Tipping Point

History

The conflict stretches back to at least 1914, when representatives from Britain, the Republic of China and Tibet gathered in Simla, in what is now India, to negotiate a treaty that would determine the status of Tibet and effectively settle the borders between China and British India.

India maintains that the McMahon Line, a 550-mile frontier that extends through the Himalayas, is the official legal border between China and India.

But China has never accepted it.

Tensions rose throughout the 1950s. The Chinese insisted that Tibet was never independent and could not have signed a treaty creating an international border. China sought to control critical roadways near its western frontier in Xinjiang, while India and its Western allies saw any attempts at Chinese incursion as part of a wider plot to export Maoist-style Communism across the region.

By 1962, war had broken out.

Chinese troops crossed the McMahon Line and took up positions deep in Indian Territory, capturing mountain passes and towns. The war lasted one month but resulted in more than 1,000 Indian deaths and over 3,000 Indians taken as prisoners. The Chinese military suffered fewer than 800 deaths.

By November, Premier Zhou Enlai of China declared a cease-fire, unofficially redrawing the border near where Chinese troops had conquered territory. It was the so-called Line of Actual Control.

Current Scenario

Tensions have been escalating since late April, when China sent thousands of troops into the disputed territory along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), bringing artillery and vehicles.Analysts say the Chinese government, which has been more assertive in building infrastructure in the area, is anxious to frustrate any effort by India to upgrade its own military installations.Their refusal to leave disputed areas, including the Galwan Valley inside Indian Territory, has triggered shouting matches, stone-throwing and fistfights in key border areas. Last month, there was a massive brawl between patrols, but no deaths.

At least 20 people have died in clashes between Indian and Chinese troops along the disputed Himalayan border running along the Ladakh area of Kashmir. It is the first fatal clash since 1975 and the most serious since 1967.During the confrontation an Indian commanding officer was pushed and fell into the river gorge (according to The Guardian). Hundreds of troops from both sides were called in and fought with rocks and clubs. Several fell to their deaths.

The conflict has enormous geopolitical consequences for the world. China and India are the two most populous nations on earth, and both are nuclear powers. They are led by governments run strongly along nationalist lines, and whose militaries are seen as markers of national status and pride. Both parties have been working towards de-escalation in recent weeks but the loss of life makes the situation even more complicated and precarious.

Chinese state media has reported the PLA is conducting joint military exercises “aimed at the destruction of key hostile hubs in a high-elevation mountainous region”. The PLA Tibet Military Command conducted live fire drills with heavy artillery on Tuesday, with reports linking the PLA’s preparedness for high elevation combat to the clashes with India.

Indian State Media is being highly irresponsible and as always in on a war mongering path. Campaigns have been launched for boycotting Chinese products and call for illogical actions. The Modi-led BJP government is under great pressure to act and this small border skirmish might just be the spark for the 3^rd World War. Most observers might say that this would be a very naïve thing to say but Franz Ferdinand’s assassination looked like a small thing to start a World War but in hindsight it was the “Tipping Point”.