The
Treaty of Lausanne is ending in 2023. In the treaty, Turkey gave up all claims
to the remainder of the Ottoman Empire and in return
the Allies recognized Turkish sovereignty within its new
borders. It provided for the Greek-Turkish population
exchange and allowed unrestricted civilian passage through
the Turkish Straits .The treaty was ratified by Turkey on
23 August 1923.
The
AKP Government under Erdogan had proclaimed an ambitious 10 year plan in 2013
to put Turkey back onto the forefront of International Politics. The recent
power plays by Turkey in the region shows Erdogan’s determination to achieve
this goal. Within the last decade, Turkey has risen to become a somewhat
hegemonic power within the region, with Iran being it’s only rival in influence
and Israel being its only rival in military might. Its proactive stance in the
Syrian conflict – through its famed “Operation Euphrates Shield” and its
current “Operation Olive Branch” – has enabled the country to again become a
regional power to be reckoned with militarily, economically and diplomatically.
One
major factor of leverage Turkey has in the region, however, is often overlooked
by most: water. In a region with a deep thirst and scarcity for this resource
more valuable than oil, Turkey has the advantage in this regard. While its Arab
neighbours have an annual average of 300 cubic metres of water per person,
Turkey possesses a tenfold increase of that at 3,100 cubic metres per person
annually. This is primarily due to the fact that the country holds a staggering
90 per cent share of the Euphrates River and 45 per cent share of the Tigris
River, which both originate in the Anatolian mountains of eastern Turkey. Under
Vision 2023, the country is again increasing its construction of dams
in pursuit of hydropower and energy. Turkey’s influence on the
region’s water supply has been used before and, without any existing formal
agreement on the share and distribution of the rivers between the three
countries, we can expect it to be used again.
Indeed,
the national aims and visions that have been proclaimed to come after 2023 are
those of 2053 and 2071, and these dates were not picked at random. The former
will mark 600 years since the Ottoman conquest of Istanbul and the latter will mark
the thousandth anniversary of the decisive victory of the Seljuk Turks over the
Byzantines at the Battle of Manzikert in 1071. What we are witnessing is the
recognition and commemoration of Turkey’s historic role of leadership of the
Muslim world – something that was unspeakable and abhorred by the staunchly
secularist Turkish governments since Ataturk’s reformations.
In
short, 2023 is the year Turkey begins to reclaim its legacy and the lost
territories of the Ottoman Empire. Vision 2023 is ambitious and threatening and
Erdogan is just the type of person to lead the country in such a time.
The final countdown has begun.
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